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One of the strategies many of us learned from the great John Patrick is the regression move. It’s a move particularly well-suited for DI’s with limited bankrolls. Simply put, a regression move is a play designed to lock up an early profit on a shooter and position the player for a larger win should the hand continue. It’s a strategy I use in virtually every session I play. While it does not give you a mathematical edge over the house, it does let the disciplined gambler play from a position of power. It is an especially effective way for precision shooters to play. Classic Regression Craps Strategy

Let’s look at a player with a respectable SRR of 1:8 using the V-3 pre-set. For the sake of this example, let’s assume he keeps the dice on axis 100% of the time. Not only does the player know that on average, he’s going to get eight tosses in before the devil jumps up, he also knows the distribution of numbers that will likely roll. Out of sixteen possible on-axis combinations, two add up to seven, six add up to six or eight, four add up to five or nine, and four add up to three, four, ten and eleven. Our astute player knows his advantage is on the inside numbers, and he bets those numbers in proportion to his advantage, with three chips each on the six or eight for every two on the five or nine. He knows that he may go point-seven, or he may shoot the lights out with a forty-five number hand. But over the long haul, if his tracking is correct, he will average eight tosses once the point is established. To err on the conservative side, he’s elected to play a strategy that includes a regression to lock up a profit after the fourth post-Come Out toss. His regression involves coming down off the five and nine and reducing the size of his bets on the six and eight. He will “same bet” subsequent hits until he gets over his SRR “hump.” If the roll extends beyond roll eight he will press every other hit in an up and out strategy.
Now let’s plug some numbers in and see how the hand plays out. Let’s give the player $1000 bankroll in a $10 – 2X odds game. He plays $10 on the Pass Line and establishes the six as his point and takes $20 in free odds. He places the eight for $30, and the five and nine for $20 each. Remember, he sized his place action according to his advantage, placing more emphasis on the six and eight, where he has the greatest edge with the V-3. Now let’s play out the hand.
Six is the point.
Second toss – rolls 8. Shooter collects $35. $90 action on the table. $55 at risk.
Third toss – rolls 9. Shooter collects $28. $90 action on the table. $27 at risk.
Fourth toss – rolls 3. No change in bankroll. Shooter comes down off the 5 and 9. Regresses the eight to $12, and regresses the free odds behind the Pass Line to $10. $32 on the table. $31 guaranteed profit for the hand.
Fifth toss – rolls 10. Same action.

Classic Regression Craps Strategy

Sixth toss – rolls 8. Same bet. Lock up an additional $14. $32 action on the table. $45 guaranteed profit for the hand.
Seventh toss – rolls 5. Same action.
Craps

Eighth toss – 7 out. House locks up the $32 action. Player colors in a $45 profit.
It’s really that simple. Now, there are all sorts of variations you can spin off the above action. You could turn your bets off on roll’s seven, eight, and nine – leaving just your line bet working. You could pick up your free odds and just go with the flat bet for a few tosses. Or you could convert to Come betting and let the dice decide what do to next. Of course, if you choose the latter, remember you are taking chips out of your guarantee and putting them back in action. Limit yourself to one or two Come bets, or play a modified version of the Heat Seeking Craps Strategy by coming down on place action as Come bets travel, and going strictly with flat bets until a number repeats itself and “earns” its free odds bet.

Classic Regression Craps Strategy Strategies

Locking up a profit early is a smart way to play. If you will do it consistently, it will go a long way toward improving your craps bottom-line.